HR: 13:40h
AN: H13I-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Parameter Estimation, Model Initialisation and Data Assimilation Issues for Distributed Flood Forecasting Models
AU: * Moore, R J
EM: rm@ceh.ac.uk
AF: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
AU: Cole, S J
EM: scole@ceh.ac.uk
AF: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
AU: Bell, V A
EM: vib@ceh.ac.uk
AF: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
AB: Distributed hydrological models are receiving increasing attention for use in flood forecasting and warning. This in part reflects an operational demand to extend the areas receiving warnings and where, typically, there is an absence of local river gauging. Distributed modelling can offer an area-wide forecasting approach and is a natural way to proceed for flood warning at ungauged locations. The modelling can also benefit from improved spatial datasets on terrain, land cover, soil and geology properties together with space-time datasets of rainfall. Simple physical-conceptual distributed model formulations offer the prospect of linking the spatial datasets directly to model properties, leaving only a small number of regional parameters to calibrate using flows at gauged locations within the modelled domain. Initialisation of such distributed models presents new challenges in real-time situations where a long spin-up period is undesirable. The problem of initialisation is closely related to that of data assimilation where the aim is to increase forecast accuracy by updating the states of the distributed model in real-time. Approaches to these issues will be discussed in the context of ongoing work in the UK on improving flood forecasting and warning methodologies.
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1874 Ungaged basins
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting