HR: 16:00h
AN: H14A-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Time Varying Parameterization of Hydrological Models
AU: * Bardossy, A
EM: bardossy@iws.uni-stuttgart.de
AF: Universitaet Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 61, Stuttgart, 70550, Germany
AU: Singh, S K
EM: shaileshiitm@gmail.com
AF: Universitaet Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 61, Stuttgart, 70550, Germany
AB: Hydrological models are frequently used for forecasting, water management or design to provide information for decision making. Due to the simplification of the complex natural processes and the limited availability of observations the parameters of these models cannot be identified perfectly. Usually the parameters of the models are assumed to be time independent. However some properties of the catchments might change in from one event to another in an unpredictable manner. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to estimate selected model parameters as random variables changing in time. The distribution of the model parameter is assessed in calibration phase using different assumptions. During the application of the model these distributions are used to estimate the expected hydrological behavior and the uncertainty too. The methodology will be demonstrated on mezo-scale catchments in the Neckar basin in South-West Germany. The systematic differences between model behavior and observations are demonstrated using a set of selected events. Calibration and uncertainty estimation are demonstrated by an example application to a distributed HBV model. The model residual distributions are presented and compared to a standard calibration method. Further, it is shown that the new methodology leads to more realistic confidence intervals for model simulations.
DE: 1846 Model calibration (3333)
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting