HR: 0800h
AN: H21G-0821    [Abstracts]
TI: Improving Forecasts of Flood Risk by Incorporating Climate Variability Into Bulletin 17B LP3 Model
AU: Kashelikar, A S
EM: askashel@mtu.edu
AF: Michigan Technological University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, United States
AU: * Griffis, V W
EM: vgriffis@mtu.edu
AF: Michigan Technological University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, United States
AB: The current techniques for flood frequency analysis presented in Bulletin 17B assume annual maximum floods are stationary; meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends or long-term cycles (i.e. decadal variations). In light of growing evidence that streamflows are nonstationary and are impacted by climate variability, the Bulletin 17B techniques should be modified. The effects of climatic cycles occurring over a shorter time frame, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are averaged into flood risk estimates made using the procedures of Bulletin 17B. However, the effects of ENSO are likely to affect the magnitude of annual maximum streamflows, and thus would impact flood risk in a given year. In order to improve estimates/forecasts obtained using the Bulletin 17B LP3 model, the effects of climate variability associated with ENSO events may be incorporated into updated estimates of the mean, and perhaps the standard deviation, by regressing the LP3 parameters on a climatic index such as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. In this study, the regression model is applied to unimpaired annual maximum streamflow datasets for gauging stations across the contiguous United States to obtain a one-year ahead forecast of the mean. For stations where the regression analysis yields significant results, the forecasted flood risk is compared with that obtained using the existing Bulletin 17B LP3 model.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1860 Streamflow
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting