HR: 0800h
AN: H21G-0825    [Abstracts]
TI: A formal framework of scenario creation and analysis of extreme hydrological events
AU: * Lohmann, D
EM: Dag.Lohmann@rms.com
AF: Risk Management Solutions, Peninsular House 30 Monument Street, London, EC3R 8NB, United Kingdom
AB: We are presenting a formal framework for a hydrological risk analysis. Different measures of risk will be introduced, such as average annual loss or occurrence exceedance probability. These are important measures for e.g. insurance companies to determine the cost of insurance. One key aspect of investigating the potential consequences of extreme hydrological events (floods and draughts) is the creation of meteorological scenarios that reflect realistic spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation that also have correct local statistics. 100,000 years of these meteorological scenarios are used in a calibrated rainfall-runoff-flood-loss-risk model to produce flood and draught events that have never been observed. The results of this hazard model are statistically analyzed and linked to socio-economic data and vulnerability functions to show the impact of severe flood events. We are showing results from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Flood Model to introduce this formal framework.
UR: http://www.rms.com
DE: 1805 Computational hydrology
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1872 Time series analysis (3270, 4277, 4475)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting