HR: 1340h
AN: H23B-1302    [Abstracts]
TI: The Effects of Spatial Uncertainty on Modelling the Saltwater-Freshwater Interface for a Coastal Groundwater Management Problem
AU: * Ricciardi, K
EM: Karen.Ricciardi@umb.edu
AF: Univ of Mass Boston, Department of Mathematics 100 Morrissey Blvd., Boston, MA 02125, United States
AB: Management of coastal aquifers involves the use of numerical models to predict the effects of pumping on the hydrologic properties of the aquifer. Of great importance in these types of management problems is the correct prediction of the saltwater-freshwater interface to avoid saltwater intrusion issues. Often municipalities place upper limits on the allowable amount of pumping to avoid such issues. When these limits are based upon deterministic groundwater flow models they may be set conservatively high in order to avoid the risks associated with the uncertainty of the groundwater model. This research investigates the effects of the uncertainty in a groundwater flow model on the prediction of the location of the saltwater-freshwater interface. A hypothetical model based upon the Lower Cape Cod Aquifer in Massachusetts is developed for this study. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of uncertainty on the saltwater-freshwater interface movement due to groundwater pumping. A conservative management system that takes into account the uncertainty in the model is developed using an optimization problem where the degree of risk in the problem is considered.
DE: 1831 Groundwater quality
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting