HR: 1340h
AN: H23F-1676    [Abstracts]
TI: Development and Evaluation of a Streamflow Forecasting Tool to Improve Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts on the Salt and Verde River Basin, Arizona
AU: * Rajagopal, S
AF: University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Gupta, H V
AF: University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Troch, P A
AF: University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Switanek, M
AF: University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Durcik, M
AF: Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas, Marshall Building, 845 N Park Avenue, 5th Floor, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Dominguez, F
AF: Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas, Marshall Building, 845 N Park Avenue, 5th Floor, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AB: Researchers at the University of Arizona are conducting research aimed at improving seasonal water supply forecasts in the Salt and Verde River basins to help water managers at Salt River Project (SRP), in Phoenix make better water supply and reservoir operation decisions. The goal of the research is to improve the seasonal water supply forecast through the development, application and testing of a physically based distributed hydrologic model coupled to a regional climate model. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was setup for the headwater basins with the intent to simulate historical observed streamflow at the outlet of Salt and Verde River basins. This model is forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature data. A multi-objective calibration using the shuffled complex evolution, University of Arizona (SCE-UA) was implemented to calibrate the VIC model incorporating observed climate elasticities of the Salt and Verde River basins. In addition, the impact of climate change on future hydrologic variables of the Salt and Verde will be assessed through the use of future climate projections derived from statistically downscaled data from the coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). In this poster, results from this calibration procedure and scenarios based on future climate forcing data will be presented.
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1860 Streamflow
DE: 1879 Watershed
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting