HR: 1340h
AN: H23F-1685    [Abstracts]
TI: Hydrological Forecasting in Mexico: Extending the University of Washington West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System
AU: * Munoz-Arriola, F
EM: fmunoz@u.washington.edu
AF: Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of Washington, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
AU: Thomas, G
EM: george@hydro.washington.edu
AF: Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of Washington, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
AU: Wood, A
EM: aww@hydro.washington.edu
AF: Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of Washington, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
AU: Wagner-Gomez, A
EM: awagner@tlaloc.imta.mx
AF: Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532, Col. Progreso, Jiutepec, MOR 62550, Mexico
AU: Lobato-Sanchez, R
EM: rlobato@tlaloc.imta.mx
AF: Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532, Col. Progreso, Jiutepec, MOR 62550, Mexico
AU: Lettenmaier, D P
EM: dennisl@u.washington.edu
AF: Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of Washington, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
AB: Hydrologic forecasting in areas constrained by the availability of hydrometeorological records is a notable challenge in water resource management. Techniques from the University of Washington West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast system www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide) for generating daily nowcasts in areas with sparse and time-varying station coverage have been extended from the western U.S. into Mexico. The primary forecasting approaches consist of ensembles based on the NWS ensemble streamflow prediction method (ESP; essentially resampling of climatology) and on NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) outputs. These in turn are used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce streamflow ensembles. The initial hydrologic state utilized in the seasonal forecasting is generated by VIC using daily real-time hydrologic nowcasts, produced using forcings derived via an 'index-station percentile' approach from meteorological station data accessed in real time from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). One-year lead time streamflow forecasts at monthly time step are produced at a set of major river locations in Mexico. As a case study, the streamflow forecasts, along with forecasts of reservoir evaporation, are used as input to the Simulation-Optimization (SIMOP) model of the Rio Yaqui system, one of the major agricultural production centers of Mexico. This is the first step in an eventual planned water management implementation over all of Mexico.
DE: 1808 Dams
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting