HR: 16:15h
AN: H24A-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Integrated and Adaptive Reservoir Management in the Context of Hydroclimatic Variability: a Case Study of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado
AU: * Ray, A J
EM: andrea.ray@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Earth System Research Lab, 325 Broadway, R/PSD1, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
AB: Water resources managers in the West face the challenge of meeting multiple and expanding demands for water in the context of existing and future hydroclimatic variations. This case study of water resources management in the Gunnison Basin of Colorado describes a context similar to many others in the western U.S.: demands match or exceed supply, and yet more demands are being made on the system. As elsewhere, new demands often relate to restoring or maintaining environmental sustainability, in this case the flow requirements to implement the Recovery Program for Endangered Fish of the Colorado River and a water right for the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park. Strategies to meet these demands focus on use of stored water in the Aspinall Unit, a system of reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) in conjunction with a diverse set of stakeholders. In response to increased demands, USBR has implemented strategies to more intensively and efficiently use water. However, as a result, the buffer to shortage or drought is all but exhausted and the system is now more sensitive to shortage. Thus by neglecting the risks of hydroclimatic variations, the implementation of these policies to achieve environmental sustainability could be hindered. On the other hand, by more fully recognizing the risks and uncertainty surrounding these variations, managers might adjust annual to interannual operating plans to mitigate adverse conditions in dry years and take advantage of wet years. The presentation will describe two factors important in the incorporation of hydroclimatic risk into management: 1) the potential to use hydroclimatic climate information in operations and long-range planning, and 2) the institutional capacity to use this information effectively. In contrast to the rigid operating constraints found in other systems, operations here are often adjusted for a variety of reasons, revealing flexibility and adaptability in operations and a collaborative management structure that seeks creative solutions . However, the uncertainty of the inflow forecast is itself a major constraining factor for operations, resulting in conservative operational choices even well into the runoff period. Advance notice about conditions in climate forecast could give more time to negotiate contracts, implement agreements, or develop new ones. The advance notice could also allow managers to plan to take advantage of wet years and maximize benefits of surplus, for example, for peak flows for ecosystems. The incorporation of hydroclimatic risk into longer-range planning, such as building flexibility into reservoir operating policies being negotiated under the EIS for the could avoid problems in implementing these policies later if changes in climate limit the amount of water available in the basin. In particular, the capacity of water management institutions to cope with climate will be described through the responses to past hydroclimatic variations.
UR: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/andrea.ray/
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 6319 Institutions
DE: 6344 System operation and management
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting