HR: 16:30h
AN: H24A-03 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management
AU: * Liu, Y
EM: yqliu@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, 845 N. Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AU: Gupta, H
EM: hoshin.gupta@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, 845 N. Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AU: Wagener, T
EM: thorsten@engr.psu.edu
AF: Pennsylvania State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, 226B Sackett Bldg., University Park, PA 16802, United States
AU: Stewart, S
EM: sstewart@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, 845 N. Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AU: Mahmoud, M
EM: mahmoud@email.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, 845 N. Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AU: Hartmann, H
EM: hollyoregon@juno.com
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, 845 N. Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AU: Springer, E
EM: everetts@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, MS J495, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States
AB: Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting