HR: 16:45h
AN: H24A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: End To End Uncertainty Estimation: From Hydrology To Water Resources Management
AU: * Ajami, N K
EM: newshaajami@berkeley.edu
AF: Berkeley Water Center, 413 B O'Brien Hall U.C. Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
AU: Hornberger, G M
EM: hornberger@virginia.edu
AF: University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences 206 Clark Hall, Charlottesville, VA 22904, United States
AB: Taking an integrated approach to assess management options for water-resources systems is necessary to inform the complex decisions facing society today. Improvement of techniques to assist in the sustainable management of water resource systems is a crucial issue since our limited resources are under ever increasing pressure. For reliable and sustainable water resources management and planning, it is essential to account for the various sources of uncertainty impacting our modeling and decision-making process. Many studies have focused on addressing the uncertainties sourcing from climate inputs (e.g. precipitation and temperature) as well as assessment of supply-demand relationship. In the end-to-end projection of hydrological impacts of climate variability, however, hydrological uncertainties have been often ignored or addressed indirectly. We demonstrate the importance of hydrological uncertainties for reliable water resources management. First we assess the hydrological uncertainties associated with hydrological input, parameters and model structural uncertainties using an Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE) framework. Subsequently these uncertainties are propagated through a hypothetical reservoir system in order to evaluate how various operational rules impact the characteristics of the downstream uncertainties, such as the width of the uncertainty bounds. We examine how hydrological uncertainties impact reliability, resilience and vulnerability of the management system considering different operational rules and why an adaptive operational approach should be considered for a sustainable management of water resources.
DE: 1857 Reservoirs (surface)
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 1884 Water supply
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting