HR: 16:15h
AN: H24E-02    [Abstracts]
TI: The Value of Scenario Development in Environmental and Socio-economic Policy Applications
AU: * Mahmoud, M I
EM: mahmoud@email.arizona.edu
AF: Hydrology and Water Resources Department, University of Arizona, John W. Harshbarger Building 1133 E James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Gupta, H V
EM: hoshin.gupta@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: Hydrology and Water Resources Department, University of Arizona, John W. Harshbarger Building 1133 E James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AB: Increasing scarcity, growing demand, and a burdened water supply have generated concerns about the sustainability of the southwest's regional water infrastructure. This necessitates the adoption of improved water management practices and policies better suited to contemporary water resource dilemmas. Scenarios introduce an innovative aspect to strategic long-term planning that is currently absent from current decision- making and resource management activities. For the purpose of assessing future water resources management and sustainability needs within the region, the formal approach to scenario development adopted by scientists and researchers at the University of Arizona's SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) center is adopted. Through workshops and meetings with regional and state stakeholders, several dominant themes of interest for water resources management emerged. A historical analysis of several key variables associated with these major themes provided insight on the future uncertainty in projections and assumptions adopted in early examples of future planning in the southwest. Analysis of these key variables indicates that historical assumptions and projections in the dimensions of the environment, climate, and socio-economics lacked the dynamic planning foresight that tools such as scenarios can provide.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1834 Human impacts
DE: 1876 Water budgets
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting