HR: 16:45h
AN: H24E-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Strategy of Water Resources Planning Under Risk
AU: * wang, z
EM: zhwang@scs.fsu.edu
AF: College of Mathematics and Information Science, North China University of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, 36 Beihuan Road, Zhengzhou, HN 450011, China
AU: Ye, M
EM: mingye@scs.fsu.edu
AF: School of Computational Science and Department of Geological Sciences,Florida State University, 116 Honors Way, Tallahassee, FL 32306, United States
AB: In water resources systems analysis, risk, caused by uncertainty, is an important issue to consider, whereas definition of risk and its measure is controversial (many definitions are available in different research fields). The problem of computing the degree of risk in water resources planning is very difficult, and has received more and more attentions from more hydrologists. This study discussed the necessity of risk analysis on decision-making associated with problems of managing regional water quantity. A new concept of risk function for regional water resource planning was introduced, and a theory of risk analysis of water resource systems was developed and implemented numerically. The developed methodology is general and can be used to tackle many kinds of decision-making problems. When loss (or benefit) volumes of an action set and probabilities of nature state of decision environments are given, non-inferior planning strategy or strategies can be derived by ordering the size of risk degrees calculated by the proposed risk function. This method was illustrated in a case study at the Huanghuaihai basin, China, one of the major food-producing areas in north China. In the last several decades, problems of water shortage and pollution are severe, and extreme weather conditions frequently occur. How to reasonably allocate the limited fresh water in the future under uncertainty is an urgent task. In this research, alternative strategies of water resource planning were investigated and risk of the strategies was assessed to facilitate the decision-making of Chinese government. The developed methodology selected the optimum choice of water resources planning strategies to avoid the risk of water shortage. This research has practicably provided support of decision-making of the Chinese central and local governments and organizations in their regional and national planning.
DE: 1218 Mass balance (0762, 1223, 1631, 1836, 1843, 3010, 3322, 4532)
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting