Climate Scenarios for the Western US: Incorporating ENSO Variability Into Downscaled Temperature and Precipitation Projections from Coupled Climate Models

HR: 17:00h
AN: H24E-05 [Abstracts]
TI: Climate Scenarios for the Western US: Incorporating ENSO Variability Into Downscaled Temperature and Precipitation Projections from Coupled Climate Models
AU: Canon, J
EM: jecanonb@email.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, SAHRA-Marshall Bldg 526B PO Box 210158B, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Canon, J
EM: jecanonb@email.arizona.edu
AF: Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 Nº 53·108, Medellin, 1226, Colombia
AU: * Dominguez, F
EM: francina@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, SAHRA-Marshall Bldg 526B PO Box 210158B, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Valdes, J
EM: jvaldes@email.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, SAHRA-Marshall Bldg 526B PO Box 210158B, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AB: In this study we incorporate the effects of ENSO on the future climate projections of the Western United States. To determine future climate scenarios we use the coupled climate models participating in the IPCC fourth assessment report, as they are currently the best quantitative climate projections available. Unfortunately, the coarse spatial resolution of the climate models makes their raw output unsuitable for decision support systems at the level of local water managers. To overcome this difficulty we downscale the projected values of precipitation and temperature from coupled climate models using observed mean high-resolution values (as in traditional downscaling techniques) but in addition, we incorporate the second moments associated to ENSO spatial and temporal variability. ENSO projections are obtained from the two coupled climate models that best represent the climate in the Southwest. Our work provides improved downscaled calculations as it considers the spatio- temporal variability of precipitation and temperature associated with ENSO while preserving the mean projected changes from the coupled climate models.
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting