HR: 17:30h
AN: H24E-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulation of Daily Rainfall Scenarios for S. Florida That Reflect Interannual and Multidecadal Climate Cycles
AU: * Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: Professor, Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, 918 Mudd, 500 W 120th Street, New York, NY 10025, United States
AU: Kwon, H
EM: hk2273@columbia.edu
AF: Associate Research Scientist, Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, 918 Mudd, 500 W 120th Street, New York, NY 10025, United States
AU: Obeysekera, J
EM: jobey@sfwmd.gov
AF: Department Director, Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Road, West Palm Beach, FL 33406, United States
AB: Concerns with the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change have led to a closer examination of how climate varies in the long run, and how such variations may impact rainfall variations at daily to seasonal time scales. For S. Florida in particular, the influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation have been identified with aggregate annual or seasonal rainfall variations. Since the combined effect of these variations is manifest as persistent multi-year variations in rainfall, the question of modeling these variations at the time and space scales relevant for use with the daily time step driven hydrologic models in use by the SFWMD has arisen. This is the problem addressed in this study. A newly developed methodology called Wavelet Autoregressive Modeling (WARM) is used in the first step after suitable climate proxies for regional rainfall are identified. These proxies typically have data available for a century to 4 centuries so that long term quasi-periodic climate modes of interest can be identified more reliably. Correlation analyses with seasonal rainfall in the region are used to identify the specific proxies considered as candidates for subsequent conditioning of daily rainfall attributes using a Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM).
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting