HR: 0800h
AN: H31G-0739 [Abstracts]
TI: Highly Improved Predictability in the Forecasting of the East Asian Summer Monsoon
AU: * Lee, E
EM: eungul.lee@colorado.edu
AF: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309,
AU: * Lee, E
EM: eungul.lee@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309,
AU: Chase, T N
EM: tchase@cires.colorado.edu
AF: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309,
AU: Chase, T N
EM: tchase@cires.colorado.edu
AF: Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309,
AU: Rajagopalan, B
EM: balajir@colorado.edu
AF: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309,
AU: Rajagopalan, B
EM: balajir@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado,
Boulder, CO 80309,
AB:
The East Asian summer monsoon greatly influences the lives and property of about a quarter of all the people in
the world. However, the predictability of the monsoon is very low in comparison with that of Indian summer
monsoon because of the complexity of the system which involves both tropical and sub-tropical climates.
Previous monsoon prediction models emphasized ocean factors as the primary monsoon forcing. Here we show
that pre-season land surface cover is at least as important as ocean indices. A new statistical forecast model of
the East Asian summer monsoon using land cover conditions in addition to ocean heat sources doubles the
predictability relative to a model using ocean factors alone. This work highlights the, as yet, undocumented
importance of seasonal land cover in monsoon prediction and the role of the biosphere in the climate system as
a whole. We also detail the physical mechanisms involved in these land surface forcings.
DE: 1218 Mass balance (0762, 1223, 1631, 1836, 1843, 3010, 3322, 4532)
DE: 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322)
DE: 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 3322)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)
DE: 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 1843)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting