HR: 0800h
AN: H31G-0753    [Abstracts]
TI: Extreme Rainfall Frequency Analysis in a Changing Climate Pattern in South Korea
AU: * Moon, Y
EM: ymoon@uos.ac.kr
AF: Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, 90 Jeonnong-dong Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 130743, Korea, Republic of
AU: Kwon, H
EM: hk2273@columbia.edu
AF: Associate Research Scientist, Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, 918 Mudd, 500 W 120th Street, New York, NY 10025, United States
AU: Siegfried, T
EM: ts2392@columbia.edu
AF: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Earth Institute, Columbia University, 500 W. 120th St. Room 842A, New York, NY 10025, United States
AB: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to consider the exogenous factors that can influence on the frequency of hydrologic extreme events. The sea surface temperatures (SST), the ensemble of rainfall predictions by GCM, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to nonstationary frequency model. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The predictors are compared in terms of the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters associated with estimated frequency distributions. Major Rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis
DE: 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912)
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects (4802, 4902)
DE: 1813 Eco-hydrology
DE: 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets (1218, 1655)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting