HR: 0800h
AN: H31H-0755    [Abstracts]
TI: An Integrated Hierarchical Approach to Hydrologic Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Analysis
AU: Gupta, H
EM: hoshin.gupta@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources 845 N Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AU: * Liu, Y
EM: yqliu@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources 845 N Park Ave, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States
AB: The issue of hydrologic uncertainty needs to be adequately addressed if hydrologic modeling is to realize its maximum practical potential in environmental decision-making. The key to properly addressing hydrologic uncertainty is to understand, quantify, and reduce the uncertainties involved in hydrologic modeling in a cohesive and systematic manner. Although general principles and techniques for addressing hydrologic uncertainty are being discussed in the literature, there exist no well-accepted guidelines about how to actually implement such principles and methods in various hydrologic settings in an integrated manner. This presentation discusses the various types of hydrologic uncertainty from a systems perspective, and presents an integrated hierarchical Bayesian framework for pursuing hydrologic data assimilation - using a progression of several steps to maximally reduce the uncertainty in hydrologic predictions (including system identification, parameter estimation, state estimation, and final output prediction).
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 3315 Data assimilation
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting