HR: 0800h
AN: H31H-0761    [Abstracts]
TI: An Uncertainty Framework For Downward Modeling Of Watershed Hydrology
AU: * Bai, Y
EM: yxb124@psu.edu
AF: The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State Colege, PA 16801, United States
AU: Wagener, T
AF: The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State Colege, PA 16801, United States
AU: Reed, P
AF: The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State Colege, PA 16801, United States
AB: We present an uncertainty-guided downward approach to model the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. A series of watershed models with increasing complexity is applied to interpret signatures of inter-annual, intra-annual and daily streamflow response behavior for 12 US watersheds across a range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model performance for each of these signatures is evaluated using a Monte Carlo framework. Probabilistic model performance measures are combined with fuzzy rules to provide guidance on the appropriate levels of model complexity that are necessary to represent watershed behavior at a certain scale. The objective of this work is to provide better a priori understanding of model selection for a range of hydro-climate conditions and timescales.
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting