HR: 10:55h
AN: H32B-03 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: A Systematic Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in Groundwater Modeling
AU: * Mishra, S
EM: smishra@intera.com
AF: INTERA Inc., 1812 Centre Creek Dr Ste 300, Austin, TX 78754, United States
AB: Engineers and scientists dealing with the modeling and management of subsurface hydrologic systems are routinely confronted with uncertainty caused by incomplete knowledge and/or natural variability. Although considerable advances have been made in the use of geostatistical techniques for quantifying the impacts of spatial variability in hydrogeologic parameters, ad-hoc approaches continue to be used for analyzing the influence of lack-of-knowledge driven parameter uncertainty on numerical model predictions. The objective of our presentation is to describe and illustrate a systematic framework for this purpose. Key elements of such a framework are: (a) uncertainty characterization – which involves fitting and/or assigning marginal and joint distributions to uncertain model inputs, (b) uncertainty propagation – which involves translating the uncertainty in model inputs into uncertainty in model outputs, and (c) uncertainty importance assessment – which involves determining the key drivers of output uncertainty. Additional considerations related to the quantification and propagation of conceptual model uncertainty, as well as conditional uncertainty assessments in the context of model calibration, will also be discussed.
DE: 1829 Groundwater hydrology
DE: 1846 Model calibration (3333)
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting