HR: 10:25h
AN: H32E-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Real-Time Operation Of A Multipurpose Multi-Reservoir System Using A Distributed Hydrological Model And Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
AU: * Saavedra Valeriano, O C
EM: oliver@hydra.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
AF: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan
AU: Koike, T
EM: tkoike@hydra.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
AF: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan
AU: Yang, K
EM: yangk@hydra.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
AF: Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan
AU: Yang, D
EM: yangdw@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
AF: Dept. of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China, Beijing, 100084, China
AB: Taking advantage of a distributed hydrological model's capabilities such as capturing spatial heterogeneity, this study couples a physically based hydrological model with embedded dam network operation to a heuristic model for real-time operation. The input rainfall is a meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecast at 0.125 degrees resolution issued every 6 hours. It was analyzed 3 different series and the complete 18 hours lead-time. The system attempts to 1) reduce flood peaks down stream and 2) replenish water level at reservoirs after flood event. The proposed scheme takes advantage of the heuristic algorithm in order to evaluate different release combination sets automatically based on stochastic seeding considering the dam constraints and objective function. Latter is defined to minimize the absolute difference between the forecasted flood volume at protecting point and the total released volume from reservoirs. To estimate the flood volume a desirable discharge is to be set at protecting point. The desirable discharge is defined as the average of observed values exceeding the mean annual discharge; however, this can be modified according to flood warning levels and water resources management. The optimization variables are the release-inflow ratios. In addition, it was introduced the standard deviation of the error forecast as a weight in the objective function. The developed system was applied to upper Tone River in Japan using up to three multipurpose reservoirs. The efficiency of the system's response was evident reducing the flood peaks and volume at protecting point comparing the optimized releases against observed data. This approach has shown feasibility to be used by dam operators as a real-time reference tool for more efficient water resources management.
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1857 Reservoirs (surface)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting