HR: 10:55h
AN: H32E-03 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Verification: Connecting Research and Operations
AU: * Welles, E
EM: Edwin.Welles@noaa.gov
AF: National Weather Service, W/OST32 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910,
AB: A brief study of river forecasts issued by the National Weather Service raises the question "Have river forecasts improved over the past two decades?" Most hydrologic research is conducted with the assumption that improving the underlying science will improve forecasts. Given the variety of sources of uncertainty in a river forecast, this assumption may or may not be true. A tighter bond between hydrologic research and operations is necessary to ensure research output will be of value to forecast practitioners. For example, there is no well understood baseline of forecast skill against which new ideas can be compared objectively. Nor is there a well documented assessment of uncertainty sources in the forecasts to guide researchers. The National Weather Service has undertaken two important projects to help foster the connection between hydrologic research and operations. First they have initiated development of a Community Hydrologic Prediction System and second they have started to define standardized verification procedures for hydrologic forecasts. A review of the verification study and then descriptions of the two projects will be presented.
DE: 1805 Computational hydrology
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1821 Floods
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting