HR: 16:30h
AN: H34C-03 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Past, Current and Future Trajectories of Watershed Nutrient Sources, Forms and Exports: a Global NEWS Application to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
AU: * Seitzinger, S
EM: sybil@marine.rutgers.edu
AF: Rutgers University, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences 71 Dudley Rd, Princeton, NJ 08901, United States
AU: Mayorga, E
EM: mayorga@marine.rutgers.edu
AF: Rutgers University, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences 71 Dudley Rd, Princeton, NJ 08901, United States
AU: Beusen, A
EM: Arthur.Beusen@mnp.nl
AF: MNP, RIVM, Bilthoven, 3720 BA, Netherlands
AU: Bouwman, A
EM: Lex.Bouwman@mnp.nl
AF: MNP, RIVM, Bilthoven, 3720 BA, Netherlands
AU: Dumont, E
EM: egon.dumont@univ-perp.fr
AF: CEFREM, Université de Perpignan Via Domitia, 52 avenue Paul Alduy, Perpignan Cedex, 66860, France
AU: Fekete, B
EM: balazs.fekete@unh.edu
AF: University of New Hampshire, Complex Systems Analysis Group Morse Hall, Durham, NH 03824, United States
AU: Harrison, J
EM: harrisoj@vancouver.wsu.edu
AF: Washington State University Vancouver, School of Earth & Environmental Sciences 14204 N.E. Salmon Creek Avenue, Vancouver, WA 98686-9600, United States
AU: Kroeze, C
EM: Carolien.Kroeze@wur.nl
AF: Wageningen University, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, P.O. Box 8080, Wageningen, 6700 DD, Netherlands
AU: Lee, R
EM: rlee@marine.rutgers.edu
AF: Rutgers University, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences 71 Dudley Rd, Princeton, NJ 08901, United States
AU: Vorosmarty, C J
AF: University of New Hampshire, Complex Systems Analysis Group Morse Hall, Durham, NH 03824, United States
AU: Wisser, D
AF: University of New Hampshire, Complex Systems Analysis Group Morse Hall, Durham, NH 03824, United States
AB: Dramatic global increases in anthropogenic nutrient production on land and negative impacts on coastal systems due to export from rivers are extensively documented. Recently, the comprehensive Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) concluded that excessive nutrient loading of ecosystems is one of the major drivers of global ecosystem change. Increased nutrient mobilization is expected to continue for decades in response to economic and population growth. Development of a scientific basis for actions to reverse these trends and sustain riverine and coastal ecosystem health requires quantitative models applicable at regional to global scales, sensitive to changes in watershed anthropogenic forcings, and capable of predicting changes in element ratios and nutrient forms (dissolved vs. particulate, organic vs. inorganic) which have been shown to modulate the impacts of nutrient loading on marine ecosystems. The Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) system of models was designed to meet these requirements and was previously applied to contemporary (1995) forcings. We will present preliminary results from an application to past (1970) and current (2000) conditions, and compare them to four MA future scenarios thru 2050. These scenarios integrate economic, social, and ecosystem processes, and represent plausible futures with contrasting degrees of global cooperation and of sustainability of ecosystem services.
DE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912)
DE: 0469 Nitrogen cycling
DE: 4845 Nutrients and nutrient cycling (0470, 1050)
DE: 4850 Marine organic chemistry (0470, 1050)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting