HR: 16:00h
AN: H34E-01 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Upscaling Soil Hydraulic Properties Using Field-Scale Inverse Modeling and Bayesian Model Averaging
AU: * Vrugt, J A
EM: vrugt@lanl.gov
AF: Center for Nonlinear Studies (CNLS), Mail Stop T003 Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States
AU: Wohling, T
EM: woehling@lvlham.lincoln.ac.nz
AF: Lincoln Environmental Research, Ruakura Research Center, Hamilton, PO Box 133, New Zealand
AB: Parameter estimation through inverse modeling is a powerful method to derive effective values of the soil hydraulic parameters at various spatial scales. This approach circumvents many of the problems associated with conventional upscaling methods, but is typically carried out using a single conceptual mathematical model of the underlying vadose zone system, rejecting a-priori valid alternative conceptual models and underestimating uncertainty in the model itself. Methods based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) have been proposed in the statistical literature as a means to explicitly account for conceptual model uncertainty. In this talk, we will highlight some of our recent work on a combined BMA and inverse modeling framework to estimate effective field-scale soil hydraulic properties, including their underlying uncertainty. We demonstrate our approach using observed tensiometric data from the Spydia experimental field site in New Zealand.
DE: 1839 Hydrologic scaling
DE: 1846 Model calibration (3333)
DE: 1865 Soils (0486)
DE: 1875 Vadose zone
DE: 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting