HR: 1340h
AN: H43A-0963    [Abstracts]
TI: Improving Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Interdecadal/Interannual Climate Variability
AU: * Lamb, K
EM: lamb@unlv.nevada.edu
AF: University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway Box 454015, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4015, United States
AU: Piechota, T
EM: piechota@unlv.nevada.edu
AF: University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway Box 454015, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4015, United States
AU: Moradkhani, H
EM: hamidm@cecs.pdx.edu
AF: Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207, United States
AB: An overview of a research project that investigates the ability to improve ensemble streamflow forecasts with improved understanding of interdecadal climate variability is presented. The research builds on new advances that researchers have found on the influence of interdecadal climate variability (i.e., Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Monthly Oscillation) and Pacific sea surface temperatures on streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (Tootle et al., 2005, Tootle and Piechota, 2006). Ensemble hydrologic prediction, which explicitly addresses forecast uncertainty in terms of the outcome's occurrence probability, is a plausible and promising approach for developing a seamless suite of intraseasonal to interannual hydrometeorological predictions, one of the high priorities of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and specifically, the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA). This new information will be combined with existing capabilities in the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system for the Colorado River Basin to produce improved long-range streamflow forecasts. Preliminary research is presented on how Colorado River streamflow is influenced during the different phases of ENSO, PDO, AMO and the coupled impacts.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting