HR: 1340h
AN: H43D-1617    [Abstracts]
TI: A Scenario Based Assessment of Future Groundwater Resources in the Phoenix Active Management Area
AU: * Escobar, V M
EM: vanessa.escobar@asu.edu
AF: Decision Center for a Desert City, Arizona State University P.O. Box 878209, Tempe, AZ 85287-8209, United States
AU: Lant, T W
EM: lant@asu.edu
AF: Decision Center for a Desert City, Arizona State University P.O. Box 878209, Tempe, AZ 85287-8209, United States
AB: The availability of future water supplies in central Arizona depends on the interaction of multiple physical and human systems: climate, hydrology, water and land-use policy, urbanization, and regulation. The problem in assessing future water supplies requires untangling these drivers and recasting the issue in a way that acknowledges the inherent uncertainties in climate and population growth predictions while offering meaningful metrics for outcomes under alternative scenarios. Further, the drivers, policy options, and outcomes are spatially heterogeneous – surface water supplies, new urban developments and changes in land-use will not be shared uniformly across the region. Consequently, different geographic regions of the Phoenix metropolitan area will be more vulnerable to shortages in water availability, and these potential vulnerabilities will be more or less severe depending on which factors cause the shortage. The results of this research will make several contributions to existing literature and research products for groundwater conservation and future urban planning. It will provide location specific metrics of water vulnerability and offer a novel approach to groundwater analysis; it will demonstrate the XLRM framework with an application to central Arizona Water resources. Lastly, it will add to the WaterSim climate model by spatializing the groundwater component for the Phoenix Active Management Area.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1829 Groundwater hydrology
DE: 1834 Human impacts
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting