HR: 11:50h
AN: H52A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Toward Integrative Uncertainty Accounting in Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting
AU: * Seo, D
EM: dongjun.seo@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development, Hydrology Laboratory, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States
AU: * Seo, D
EM: dongjun.seo@noaa.gov
AF: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Visiting Scientist Programs, 3300 Mitchell Lane FL- 4 / VSP / Suite 2400, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
AU: Demargne, J
EM: julie.demargne@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development, Hydrology Laboratory, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States
AU: Demargne, J
EM: julie.demargne@noaa.gov
AF: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Visiting Scientist Programs, 3300 Mitchell Lane FL- 4 / VSP / Suite 2400, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
AU: Wu, L
EM: limin.wu@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development, Hydrology Laboratory, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States
AU: Wu, L
EM: limin.wu@noaa.gov
AF: RS Information Systems, 1651 Old Meadow Rd, McLean, VA 22102, United States
AU: Brown, J D
EM: james.d.brown@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development, Hydrology Laboratory, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States
AU: Brown, J D
EM: james.d.brown@noaa.gov
AF: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Visiting Scientist Programs, 3300 Mitchell Lane FL- 4 / VSP / Suite 2400, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
AU: Schaake, J C
EM: john.schaake@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development, Hydrology Laboratory, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States
AU: Schaake, J C
EM: john.schaake@noaa.gov
AF: Consultant, 1 Spa Creek Lndg, Annapolis, MD 21403, United States
AB: Operational hydrologic forecasts are subject to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties, i.e., uncertainties in the hydrologic initial and boundary conditions, future boundary conditions, and observations. To produce reliable and skillful hydrologic ensemble forecasts, it is essential that both meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties are accurately accounted for. Toward that goal, NWS is developing a prototype hydrologic ensemble forecasting capability referred to as the eXperimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) for operation at the NWS River Forecast Centers (RFC). It is envisioned that all or parts of this system may be shared with the research community for collaborative research and development toward improved operational hydrologic forecasting. In this talk, we describe the XEFS framework for integrative uncertainty accounting, identify key issues and share initial results.
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1849 Numerical approximations and analysis
DE: 1860 Streamflow
DE: 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting