HR: 09:30h
AN: NG31A-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Changes in Spatial Distribution of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
AU: Pielke, R
EM: pielke@cires.colorado.edu
AF: University of Colorado - Boulder, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: * McIntyre, S
EM: stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca
AF: climateaudit.org, 25 Playter Bl, Toronto, ON M4K 2W1, Canada
AB: Although considerable attention has been paid to basinwide trends in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, considerably less attention has been given to the quantification of the changing spatial distribution of various metrics of activity . We show that the increase in observed North Atlantic cyclone activity has take place almost entirely in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, with no trend in the western Atlantic. The lack of trend in the west Atlantic is consistent with the lack of trend in landfall statistics and measures of normalized damage. The increase in observed activity in the middle of Atlantic Ocean may be due to improved observing practices (Landsea 2006, 2007), to increased east Atlantic SST (Emanuel 2005), other physical mechanisms Kossin and Vimont (2007), or a combination of these vrious explanation. For decision makers concerned about the consequences of hurricane landfalls, the localization of the increase to the middle Atlantic is as significant as any overall increase, possibly mitigating landfall consequences of any increased activity in overall Atlantic statistics.
UR: http://www.climateaudit.org/pdf/agu07
DE: 0468 Natural hazards
DE: 3270 Time series analysis (1872, 4277, 4475)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting