HR: 11:40h
AN: NG32A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Tracking the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Convective Instabilities in AMIP Simulations
AU: * Tao, K
EM: kuntao@duke.edu
AF: Pratt School of Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall, Box 90287/CEE, Durham, NC 27708, United States
AU: Barros, A P
EM: ana.barros@duke.edu
AF: Pratt School of Engineering, Duke University, 121 Hudson Hall, Box 90287/CEE, Durham, NC 27708, United States
AB: Land-atmosphere interactions exhibit regionally the nonlinear dynamical behavior of self-organizing phenomena. A critical research need is to track and measure the complex space-time lifecycle of land-forced convective instabilities from their origin to the unfolding of clouds and the materialization of rainfall across the landscape. The co-moving Lyapunov Exponent characterizes the propagation of an initially localized perturbation in space- time from a physical dynamics perspective rather than relying on the statistics of specific realizations, and hence the deductive propagation velocity depicts a profile of the predictability horizon. Analysis of results of an application of this methodology to a 16-year long AMIP simulation is presented followed by discussion of how to translate our findings to improve model parameterizations.
DE: 3215 Instability analysis
DE: 3235 Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering (3265, 7857)
DE: 3319 General circulation (1223)
DE: 4410 Bifurcations and attractors
DE: 4532 General circulation (1218, 1222)
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting