HR: 0800h
AN: NG41B-0527    [Abstracts]
TI: Modelling Aftershock Sequences With Missing Data
AU: * Lennartz, S
EM: sabine.lennartz@physik.uni-giessen.de
AF: Justus-Liebig-Universität Giessen, Institut für Theoretische Physik III, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 16, Giessen, 35392, Germany
AU: Bunde, A
EM: armin.bunde@physik.uni-giessen.de
AF: Justus-Liebig-Universität Giessen, Institut für Theoretische Physik III, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 16, Giessen, 35392, Germany
AU: Turcotte, D L
EM: turcotte@geology.ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA, Davis, CA 95616, United States
AB: We extend the previous models for aftershock sequences (ETAS and BASS) by assuming that the magnitudes m occuring at a certain time t after a large shock of magnitude m₀ can only be observed with probability p(m_o,m,t)= 10^{γ (m_c(m_o,t)-m)} where m_c(m_o,t) =m₀ -4,5 -0.75*\log₁₀(t) describes the time-dependent threshold of Helmstetter, Kagan and Jackson, above which the earthquake catalogues should be complete. We show that this ansatz yields a reasonable description of the time dependence of (a) the cumulated magnitude distribution and (b) the magnitude-dependent rate after large mainshocks when comparing our model results with 4 Californian aftershock sequences (Parkfield, Landers, Northridge and Hectormine.
DE: 4400 NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS (3200, 6944, 7839)
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting