HR: 1340h
AN: OS13A-1016    [Abstracts]
TI: ENSO and NAO as Markov chains: runs of states
AU: * Palacios, J
EM: jopala@cesma.usb.ve
AF: Universidad Simon Bolivar. Depto. de Computo Cientifico, Aptdo.89000 Valle de Sartenejas. Baruta, Caracas, 1080, Venezuela
AB: We use a simple three-state Markov chain model in order to study the number of runs or spells of hot, cold and neutral months for El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as reported in the page http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ClimateIndices/List/. We discuss the fit of the Markovian model to both phenomena and the differences between the run statistics (proportions of the number of runs over the number of transitions and over the total number of runs) for ENSO and NAO.
DE: 0430 Computational methods and data processing
DE: 0434 Data sets
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 3265 Stochastic processes (3235, 4468, 4475, 7857)
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting