HR: 0800h
AN: OS31B-0405    [Abstracts]
TI: Insights into the problems of communicating tsunami warnings and tsunami awareness education from decision loop analysis of behavior during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
AU: Fahey, P
EM: ucfbpef@ucl.ac.uk
AF: University College London, Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
AU: * Day, S J
EM: simonday_ucl@yahoo.co.uk
AF: University College London, Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
AB: Decision loop analysis allows us to interpret video and photograph evidence of the behavior of people in Sumatra, Thailand and Sri Lanka during the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, and to identify problems in communication of tsunami warnings to the general population. Decision loop analysis identifies four steps in the response to a threat: observation (of warning signs); orientation (recognition of the significance of those warning signs); decision (on what response to make); action (implementation of that response). In the case of the Indian Ocean tsunami, lack of tsunami awareness generally caused the decision loop to break down at the orientation stage, even where observation of the incoming waves was reinforced by shouted warnings. Where the orientation step was made early, evacuations were often successful. In the zone of strongest felt seismic intensity the population was subject to information overload (even though damage was often limited) and spent the time between the earthquake and the arrival of the tsunami responding to the earthquake: this "blitzkrieg" effect is a significant obstacle to near – source tsunami mitigation. In other cases, the loop broke down at the decision stage: frequently fatal decisions about where to go emphasize the need for clearly signposted tsunami evacuation routes. Decision loop analysis therefore highlights the different components needed in Education for Self Warning and Voluntary Evacuation (ESWAVE) as part of tsunami mitigation. The abundant video and photograph recordings of the 2004 tsunami provide much material for this approach, similar to the films of volcanic eruptions by Maurice and Katia Krafft that have been used to raise awareness of volcanic hazards after the 1985 Armero lahar disaster.
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting