HR: 16:00h
AN: P54A-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Earth Orbit, Period, and Temperature - Past and Future
AU: * Leubner, I H
EM: ileubner@RocherResearch.us
AF: Rochester Institute for Fundamental Science, 35 Hillcrest Dr, Penfield, NY 14526, United States
AB: The Earth climate, its recent history and near future (+/- 100 years) are under intense scrutiny because of temperature changes ascribed to green house effects. However, long-term temperature changes since the formation of the solar system (-4.5Byr) and for the extended future are not known. The present paper addresses the magnitude and the rate of Earth temperature changes for this time range, and compares the results to present observations. The model is based on the cohesion of the solar system which is determined by mass (solar radiative and solar wind)and gravity loss since the formation of the solar system, and the resulting expansion of planetary orbits.(1) This model has previously successfully predicted the why and when of the transition from water to ice on Mars. (2) After the formation of the solar system (-4.5 Byr) the Earth orbit was at 1.38E08 km (presently 1.50E08 km) and the Earth period was 0.89 years. In the future (+4.5 Byr), they are predicted to be 1.64E08 km and 1.15 yr. At -4.5 Byr, present temperatures of -50, zero, and + 50 C were higher at -40.5, 11.7, and 63.9 C, respectively. It is predicted that in +4.5 Byr these temperatures will have decreased to -60.0, -12.2, and 35.5 C. In the past million years, the present -50, 0, and +50 C temperatures were about 0.03C higher, and will be about 0.03 C lower in another million years. These results indicate that temperature changes due to changes of solar-Earth orbital interactions do not significantly contribute to the observed Earth global warming observations. (1) I. H. Leubner, ‘Stability of planetary Orbits', AGU 2006 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Ca, Dec. 11-15, 2006 (2) I. H. Leubner, ‘Mars Orbit and Temperature: Why and When an Early wet Mars', AGU 2004 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Ca, Dec. 14, 2004
UR: http://www.RocherResearch.us
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1734 Seismology
DE: 6200 PLANETARY SCIENCES: SOLAR SYSTEM OBJECTS
DE: 7500 SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY
DE: 7504 Celestial mechanics
SC: Planetary Sciences [P]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting