HR: 1340h
AN: PP43C-1529    [Abstracts]
TI: The Past is a Guide to the Future? Comparing Middle Pliocene Vegetation With Predicted Biome Distributions for the 21st Century
AU: * Salzmann, U
EM: usa@bas.ac.uk
AF: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB23 0ET, United Kingdom
AU: Haywood, A M
EM: a.haywood@see.leeds.ac.uk
AF: School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS29JT, United Kingdom
AU: Lunt, D J
EM: d.j.lunt@bristol.ac.uk
AF: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB23 0ET, United Kingdom
AU: Lunt, D J
EM: d.j.lunt@bristol.ac.uk
AF: School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom
AB: The Middle Pliocene geological stage, ca. 3.6 to 2.6 million years ago, represents an interval of time in which Earth experienced greater global warmth. In order to evaluate the degree to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a ‘test bed' for future warming, we compare a newly developed Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction with simulated global biome distributions for the mid and late 21st century. The Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is based on an internally consistent dataset of 202 palaeobotanical sites and predictions from a state-of-the-art coupled climate-vegetation model (HadAM3-TRIFFID-BIOME4), the output of which is used to provide biome estimates for data sparse regions. For the Middle Pliocene, both the vegetation reconstruction and model predictions indicate a generally warmer and moister climate than today. Evergreen taiga as well as temperate forest and grasslands shifted northward resulting in a significantly reduced area of tundra vegetation. Warm-temperate forests (with subtropical taxa) spread in Middle and Eastern Europe and tropical savannas and woodland expanded in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Middle Pliocene biome distributions are compared (globally and on a regional scale) with two new predictions of equilibrium vegetation conditions for the early 21st Century (around 2020, ~ 400ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere) and end of the 21st Century (~ 560ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere), to examine similarities and discrepancies in biome distributions. Our comparison between reconstruction and prediction will contribute to a better understanding of the past and future impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on vegetation and climate.
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1632 Land cover change
DE: 9605 Neogene
SC: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology [PP]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting