HR: 0800h
AN: S11C-0714    [Abstracts]
TI: BASS, a scale-invariant, branching aftershock model that separates aftershocks from background seismicity.
AU: * Van Aalsburg, J
EM: jvan@cse.ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Physics University or California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Holliday, J
EM: holliday@cse.ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Physics University or California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Turcotte, D
EM: turcotte@geology.ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Geology University or California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Rundle, J
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Physics University or California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Rundle, J
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: Department of Geology University or California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, United States
AB: The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model has been used to distinguish aftershocks (foreshocks) from background seismicity. A fundamental problem with the ETAS model is that the results are sensitive to the selection of the branching ratio. Also, in general, the ETAS model is not scale invariant. In order to overcome these difficulties we have introduced the branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model (GRL, 34, L12303, 2007). The BASS model is fully scale invariant. It is not necessary to specify either a largest earthquake or a smallest earthquake (aftershock). In the BASS model the frequency-magnitude statistics of aftershock sequences are fully specified by their b-value and the modified form of Bath's law. These parameters along with the parameters in the generalized form of Omori's law fully specify the relative roles of foreshocks, main shocks and aftershocks. A test of the model is to predict years in which background seismicity dominates versus years in which aftershock (foreshock) seismicity dominates. Utilizing accepted parameter values this test is successful.
DE: 3235 Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering (3265, 7857)
DE: 3238 Prediction (3245, 4263)
DE: 4440 Fractals and multifractals
DE: 4485 Self-organization
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting