HR: 0800h
AN: S11C-0718    [Abstracts]
TI: Change-Point Models for aftershock hazard analysis
AU: * Chen, Y
EM: ychen@stat.ncu.edu.tw
AF: Institute of Statistics, National Central University, No. 300 Junda Rd., Jhongli, 32054, Taiwan
AU: Huang, C
AF: Institute of Statistics, National Central University, No. 300 Junda Rd., Jhongli, 32054, Taiwan
AU: Liu, J
EM: jyliu@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw
AF: Institute of space science, National Central University, No. 300 Junda Rd., Jhongli, 32054, Taiwan
AB: The distribution of the magnitude of a sequence of aftershocks, especially, post to a strong mainshock usually depends on the time after the mainshock. Therefore, we propose a left-truncated exponential distribution for the magnitude of such a sequence which contains a change-point model for the scale parameters over time. We then discuss the testing for the change-point model and confidence interval for the change point. The proposed distribution is finally illustrated by using the sequence of aftershocks post to the Landers earthquake.
DE: 7200 SEISMOLOGY
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting