HR: 17:40h
AN: S24B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Loss Estimates in Scenario Mode may Help to Harden Those in Real-Time: Repeat of the 1356 Basel Earthquake as an Example
AU: * Wyss, M
EM: max@maxwyss.com
AF: World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, 2 rue de Jargonnant, Geneva, 1207, Switzerland
AU: Kaestli, P
EM: philipp.kaestli@sed.ethz.ch
AF: Swiss Seismological Service, ETH-Hoenggerberg, Zuerich, 8093, Switzerland
AB: Estimating losses within minutes after earthquakes worldwide can be difficult because of error sources, unexpected issues and the pressure of time. Therefore, we propose to compile a catalog of scenario loss estimates for locations where future earthquakes may be expected. These scenarios could then be consulted in real-time to assist with estimating the order of magnitude of the losses and identifying local problems that may exist. As an example, we present scenario loss estimates for a repeat of the 1356 M6.9 earthquake near Basel, Switzerland, which was the largest and most devastating historic earthquake north of the Alps. The losses we estimated are defined as average damage to buildings for all settlements affected (intensity equal to and larger than V on the modified Mercalli scale), number of injured and number of fatalities. The results in which we have most confidence are the ratio of human losses within the city of Basel to that outside of it, because any errors in the absolute values of the loss estimates tend to cancel. For a repeat of the 1356 earthquake with assumed magnitude of 6.9 and three possible epicenters (distances 6, 10, and 15 km from Basel), we calculated that the countryside would sustain 2 to 4 times the number of human losses than the city itself. In cases of smaller earthquakes (M6.5 and 6.0), at the same distances from Basel, the countryside will sustain 2 to 16 times the losses of the city. With the current population, the number of fatalities is expected to lie in the range of 6,000 to 22,000 for M6.9, 1,700 to 8,400 for an M6.5, and 160 to 1,400 for an M6.0. However, these values should be taken as preliminary, pending recalculation with recent information on building stock properties. Our preliminary estimates suggest that the number of persons requiring hospitalization may range from 6,000 to 8,000 in case of an M6.9, from 2,300 to 4,500 in case of an M6.5, and from 350 to 1,000, in case of an M6.0 earthquake. The portion of losses sustained by the neighboring countries, France and Germany are estimated to range from 0% to 5% of the total losses, strongly depending on the selected epicenter and magnitude.
UR: http://www.wapmerr.org
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7299 General or miscellaneous
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting