HR: 0800h
AN: S31B-0451    [Abstracts]
TI: 3D Modeling of Strong Ground Motion in the Pacific Northwest From Large Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone
AU: * Olsen, K B
EM: kbolsen@sciences.sdsu.edu
AF: Dept of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, United States
AU: Geisselmeyer, A
EM: andreas.geisselmeyer@online.de
AF: Dept of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, United States
AU: Stephenson, W J
EM: wjstephens@usgs.gov
AF: US Geological Survey, 1711 Illinois Street, Golden, CO 80401, United States
AU: Mai, P M
EM: mai@sed.ethz.ch
AF: Inst of Geophysics, ETH Hoenggerberg, HPP G 1.2, Zurich, 8093, Switzerland
AB: The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest, USA, generates Great (megathrust) earthquakes with a recurrence period of about 500 years, most recently the M~9 event on January 26, 1700. Since no earthquake of such magnitude has occurred in the Pacific Northwest since the deployment of strong ground motion instruments, a large uncertainty is associated with the ground motions expected from such event. To decrease this uncertainty, we have carried out the first 3D simulations of megathrust earthquakes (Mw8.5 and Mw9.0) rupturing along the Cascadia subduction zone. The simulations were carried out in a recently developed 3D velocity model of the region of dimensions 1050 km by 550 km, discretized into 2 billion 250 m3 cubes with a minimum S-wave velocity of 625 m/s. The model includes the subduction slab, accretionary sediments, local sedimentary basins, and the ocean layer. About 6 minutes of wave propagation for each scenario consumed about 24 Wall-clock hours using a parallel fourth-order finite-difference method with 1600 processors on the San Diego Supercomputer Center Datastar supercomputer. The source descriptions for the Mw9.0 scenarios were designed by mapping the inversion results for the December 26, 2004 M9+ Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake (Ji, 2006) onto a 950 km by 150 km large rupture for the Pacific Northwest model. Simulations were carried out for hypocenters located toward the northern and southern ends of the subduction zone. In addition, we simulated two M8.5 events with a source area of 275 km by 150 km located in the northern and central parts of the model area. The sources for the M8.5 events were generated using the pseudo-dynamic model by Guatteri et al. (2004). All sources used spatially-variable slip, rise time and rupture velocity. Three major metropolitan areas are located in the model region, namely Seattle (3 million+ people), Vancouver (2 million+ people), and Portland (2 million+ people), all located above sedimentary basins amplifying the waves incident from the subduction zone. The estimated peak ground velocities (PGVs) for frequencies less than 0.5 Hz vary significantly with the assumed rise time. Using a mean rise of 32 s, as estimated from source inversion of the 2004 M9+ Sumatra-Andeman event (Ji, 2006), PGVs reached 40 cm/s in Seattle and 10 cm/s in Vancouver and Portland. However, if the mean rise time is decreased to about 14 s, as suggested by the empirical regression by Somerville et al. (1999), PGVs are increased by 2-3 times at these locations. For the Mw8.5 events, PGVs would reach about 10 cm/s in Seattle, and about 5 cm/s in Vancouver and Portland. Combined with extended duration of the shaking exceeding 1 minute for the Mw8.5 events and 2 minutes for the Mw9 events, these long-period ground motions may inflict significant damage on the built environment, in particular on the highrises in downtown Seattle. However, the strongest shaking arrives 1-2 minutes after the earthquake nucleates, indicating that an early warning system in place may help mitigate loss of life in case of a megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest. Additional efforts should analyse the simulated displacements on the ocean bottom for tsunami generation potential.
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7240 Subduction zones (1207, 1219, 1240)
DE: 7290 Computational seismology
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting