HR: 08:15h
AN: S31D-02 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: A Double Branching Model for Earthquake Forecasting
AU: * Marzocchi, W
EM: marzocchi@ingv.it
AF: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Rome, 00143, Italy
AU: Lombardi, A
EM: lombardi@ingv.it
AF: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Rome, 00143, Italy
AB: Earthquake forecasting is one of the most relevant scientific contributions for society, being one of the primary ingredients for a well-founded seismic hazard assessment. Despite the importance of the issue, we are still far from a commonly accepted methodology to accomplish this goal. The epistemic uncertainty on this issue is well depicted by the simultaneous use, in practical cases, of different and sometimes antithetical models. One of the major problems in achieving a general consensus on this issue is due to the difficulty in testing and comparing the forecasting capability of different models; in practice, several models are not testable at all. Here, we propose an Earthquake Forecasting Model that can be tested in a forward perspective; this is the most straightforward way to evaluate the reliability of any forecasting model. Basically, the model is a double stochastic branching process that is set up through two sequential steps. In the first step, we estimate the well-established short time clustering. Then, we analyze and characterize the "declustered" catalog through a "second order" branching process that accounts for the statistically significant departures from a stationary Poisson model. The model is applied to different time-magnitude window in Italy and at worldwide scale in order to test the forecasting performance for moderate and large earthquakes in different tectonic domains. In general, the model shows a good fit to the data, and it reveals a better forecasting performance compared to similar models so far proposed, like stationary Poisson and ETAS models.
DE: 7200 SEISMOLOGY
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting