HR: 08:30h
AN: S31D-03    [Abstracts]
TI: A method for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes
AU: * Shcherbakov, R
EM: roshch@cse.ucdavis.edu
AF: University of Western Ontario, Department of Earth Sciences, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada
AU: Holliday, J R
EM: holliday@cse.ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Department of Physics, Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Turcotte, D L
EM: turcotte@geology.ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Department of Geology, Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Rundle, J B
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Department of Physics, Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Rundle, J B
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Department of Geology, Davis, CA 95616, United States
AB: The objective of this work is to quantify the use of past seismicity to forecast the locations of future large earthquakes. To achieve this the binary forecast approach is used where the surface of the Earth is divided into 2°× 2° cells. The cumulative Benioff strain of m≥ 5.5 earthquakes that occurred during the training period 1/1/1976 to 12/31/2000 is used to retrospectively forecast the locations of large earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 7.0 during the forecast period 1/1/2001 to 12/31/2006. The success of a forecast is measured in terms of hit rates (fraction of earthquakes forecast) and false alarm rates (fraction of alarms that do not forecast earthquakes). This binary forecast approach is quantified using a relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram and an error diagram (ED). An optimal forecast is obtained by taking the maximum value of Pierce's skill score. The result for this optimal choice is that 64% of the locations of m≥ 7.0 earthquakes occurred in 1.8% of the earth surface area.
DE: 0520 Data analysis: algorithms and implementation
DE: 3238 Prediction (3245, 4263)
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting