HR: 10:20h
AN: S32B-01 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Progress of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center
AU: * Gerstenberger, M C
EM: m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz
AF: GNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive Avalon, Lower Hutt, 5010, New Zealand
AB: Steady progress has been made in the last eighteen months in the development of an earthquake forecast testing center for New Zealand. The driving goals of the center have been to: 1) encourage and facilitate the development of new and existing time-dependent forecast models for New Zealand; and 2) examine the models with a series of tests that are appropriate for both the design of the forecast models and also the New Zealand natural lab. The center has begun to explore extensive retrospective testing but ultimately aims to conduct on- going and multi-year testing of models and comparison between models. In order to maintain transparent and widely accepted testing methodologies, we have adopted the testing routines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictibility (CSEP). Early efforts in the testing center have included improvements to the CSEP testing routines through added computational efficiency. These alternative tests provide equivalent results but reduce the heavy overhead required when running continual testing of multiple models. As with all work done within the center, these additional routines will be available to CSEP and the larger community. Other efforts have included the development of a testing rule-set appropriate to New Zealand and retrospective testing aimed at developing an understanding of characteristics of models implemented within the center.
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting