HR: 1340h
AN: S33B-1314    [Abstracts]
TI: Satellite Thermal Infrared Stress Field and Earthquake Prediction in Short-term and Imminent
AU: * Qiang, Z
EM: zuji_qiang@msn.com
AF: Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100029, China
AU: Zhao, X
AF: China Earthquake Network Center, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100029, China
AU: Xie, H
EM: hongjie.xie@utsa.edu
AF: Laboratory for Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, UTSA, One UTSA Cycle, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States
AU: Zeng, Z
EM: zuoxun.zeng@126.com
AF: Laboratory for Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, UTSA, One UTSA Cycle, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States
AU: Zeng, Z
EM: zuoxun.zeng@126.com
AF: Faculty of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
AB: It has been recognized that there is a temperature-increase anomaly before earthquake. Meteorological satellite based thermal infrared (IR) radiation in detecting ground surface temperature, thus anomaly, has its advantages, such as data accuracy, large areal coverage, a large amount of information and capability of capturing the time- space dynamic variation of the temperature - increase before earthquakes (Qiang Zuji et al., 1996). Earthquake precursors should enable a predicator to give the three elements of a future earthquake: location, magnitude and time, (Max Wyss, 1993) in which the method of thermal anomaly detection can provide all three elements. Practice is the only criterion to examine a truth. Chinese scientists in the satellite thermal-infrared earthquake-prediction group led by QIANG Zuji and DIAN Changgong have carried on practicing short and imminent earthquake prediction since 1990. Over the years we have made steady and exciting progress. During the 11 years from 1990 to 2000, we made 119 predictions. of which 58 were valid and 15 were false alarms. The success rate of those predictions increases from 24% during period of 1990-1995, to 46% in 1996, 53% in 1997, 76% in 1998, to 80% in 1999 and 2000, summarized by Wang (2005). The satellite infrared detected thermal stress field is a reflection of the earth's crust stress condition when rock stress increases the spot along the stress to produce micro fissures in rock. Therefore, hot plane and line that have the closet relation with the stress condition and the rock faulted structure can demonstrate the compression stress direction. The thermal stress types have been recognized over years include isolated X shear structure, en echelon, single arm form, the string of beads shape, ~{!J~} type, rotation shear ellipse, and the advancement rotation shear ellipse (Wu Li-xin, Liu Shan-jun, 2006,Qiang Zuji et al 1991,1993,1995,1996,1997,2001)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 8012 High strain deformation zones
DE: 8040 Remote sensing
DE: 8164 Stresses: crust and lithosphere
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting