HR: 1340h
AN: S33C-1459    [Abstracts]
TI: A Retrospective Research for 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake by 3-D PI Method
AU: * Li, H
EM: klempervinsky@gmail.com
AU: Chen, C
EM: chencc@ncu.edu.tw
AU: Tiampo, K
EM: ktiampo@seis.es.uwo.ca
AU: Rundle, J
EM: rundle@cse.ucdavis.edu
AU: Klein, W
EM: klein@physics.bu.edu
AB: The PI (Pattern Informatics) method was proposed by Tiampo et al., 2002, for the identification of future seismicity in California after 1999. A plausible result was published in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, suppl., 2002. Chen et al. modified the calculation of the original PI method to de-emphasize the effect of current events, and applied the modified PI method to make a retrospective analysis for the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. In the case study of the Chi-Chi sequence, the main shock and most of the aftershocks were located in and around the  ß¡±hot spot ßÆØ region produced by the modified PI method. Tiampo et al. (2007) applied the Thirumalai- Mountain metric to three earthquake catalogs, California, Spain and eastern Canada, which belong to different tectonic environments. Under specific spatial-temporal resolutions, effectively ergodic behaviors of seismic rate all exist in these regions. Ongoing research for Taiwan suggests that, once depth factor is considered in seismic event distribution, a similar effectively ergodicity also exists in the seismicity data. It motivates us to improve the original PI method to a 3-D version on order to consider the depth effect in a very condensed, high seismicity region. In this study, we used 3-D PI method to make a retrospective forecast of the 1999 M=7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake. The CWB (Central Weather Bureau) catalogue was used. An effectively ergodic period chosen from inverse TM metric-time plot was used as the forecast period. The main shock and several large aftershocks, which magnitudes are  ß « 6.0, are well located in or near hotspots in this 3-D PI forecast. In a relative operating characteristic test (Jolliffe and Stephenson, 2003), the performance of PI forecast is also better than relative intensity (RI).
DE: 7290 Computational seismology
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting