HR: 1340h
AN: S33C-1462    [Abstracts]
TI: Recurrence time distributions of large earthquakes in conceptual model studies
AU: * Zoeller, G
EM: gert.zoeller@uni-potsdam.de
AF: University of Potsdam, Department of Physics (Nonlinear Dynamics) Am Neuen Palais 10, Potsdam, 14469, Germany
AU: Hainzl, S
EM: hainzl@gfz-potsdam.de
AF: GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
AB: The recurrence time distribution of large earthquakes in seismically active regions is a crucial ingredient for seismic hazard assessment. However, due to sparse observational data and a lack of knowledge on the precise mechanisms controlling seismicity, this distribution is unknown. In many practical applications of seismic hazard assessment, the Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution (or a different distribution) is fitted to a small number of observational recurrence times. Here, we study various aspects of recurrence time distributions in conceptual models of individual faults and fault networks: First, the dependence of the recurrence time distribution on the fault interaction is investigated by means of a network of Brownian relaxation oscillators. Second, the Brownian relaxation oscillator is modified towards a model for large earthquakes, taking into account also the statistics of intermediate events in a more appropriate way. This model simulates seismicity in a fault zone consisting of a major fault and some surrounding smaller faults with Gutenberg-Richter type seismicity. This model can be used for more realistic and robust estimations of the real recurrence time distribution in seismic hazard assessment.
DE: 4425 Critical phenomena
DE: 4468 Probability distributions, heavy and fat-tailed (3265)
DE: 7209 Earthquake dynamics (1242)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting