HR: 1340h
AN: S43A-1064    [Abstracts]
TI: Analysis of Aftershock Activity in Stable Continental Regions: Implications for Aftershock Forecasting after Strong Earthquakes in the CEUS
AU: Moulis, A M
EM: macherid@bc.edu
AF: Weston Observatory Boston College, 381 Concord Rd., Weston, MA 02493, United States
AU: * Ebel, J E
EM: ebel@bc.edu
AF: Weston Observatory Boston College, 381 Concord Rd., Weston, MA 02493, United States
AB: Statistical forecasts of the probabilities of future aftershocks after a large earthquake have become routine in California, an area where the average Omori-law properties of aftershock sequences have been determined from a large number of aftershock sequences. Unfortunately, there are not enough strong earthquakes with aftershock sequences in eastern North America for robust determinations of the average aftershock properties for that region. Thus, for the application forecasting in eastern North America, the aftershock properties from earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCRs) globally have been determined under the assumption that the aftershock behavior in all SCRs is comparable. The aftershock activity from 28 SCR earthquakes of Mw 6.0 and greater has been compiled, and the Omori-law parameters of this data set have been determined. Some SCR mainshocks have been followed by more active aftershock sequences, while some have been followed by relatively inactive aftershock sequences. Although the variation in SCR aftershock activity from one event to another is quite large, the average Omori-law aftershock properties are similar to those determined for California. These properties can be used as a basis for statistical forecasts of aftershock activity after strong earthquakes in eastern North America.
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting