HR: 16:55h
AN: S44A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Real-time Experimental Forecast of the Peruvian Tsunami of August 15, 2007
AU: * Wei, Y
EM: yong.wei@noaa.gov
AF: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 4909 25th Avenue NE UW Box 354925, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
AU: * Wei, Y
EM: yong.wei@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AU: Bernard, E
EM: Eddie.N.Bernard@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AU: Tang, L
EM: liujuan.tang@noaa.gov
AF: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 4909 25th Avenue NE UW Box 354925, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
AU: Tang, L
EM: liujuan.tang@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AU: Weiss, R
EM: Robert.Weiss@noaa.gov
AF: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 4909 25th Avenue NE UW Box 354925, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
AU: Weiss, R
EM: Robert.Weiss@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AU: Titov, V
EM: Vasily.Titov@noaa.gov
AF: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 4909 25th Avenue NE UW Box 354925, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
AU: Moore, C
EM: Christopher.Moore@noaa.gov
AF: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 4909 25th Avenue NE UW Box 354925, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
AU: Moore, C
EM: Christopher.Moore@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AU: Spillane, M
EM: Mick.Spillane@noaa.gov
AF: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 4909 25th Avenue NE UW Box 354925, Seattle, WA 98195, United States
AU: Spillane, M
EM: Mick.Spillane@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AU: Hopkins, M
EM: Mike.Hopkins@noaa.gov
AF: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, United States
AB: At 23:41 UTC on 15 August 2007, an offshore magnitude 8.0 earthquake severely damaged central Peru and generated a tsunami. Severe shaking by the earthquake, which killed over 650 people throughout the region, collapsed buildings, while tsunami flooding of 5 m was observed at Paradas, Peru. The only real-time tsunami data available came from a deep ocean tsunami detection buoy within 1 hour of tsunami generation. The real-time forecast of the 15 August 2007 Peruvian tsunami event was another successful test of NOAA's experimental tsunami forecast system. The accurate, efficient, and reliable forecasts were instrumental in the quick cancellation of the warning within 2.5 hours after the earthquake, while demonstrating the great potential of the experimental system in real-time operation. The clear real-time tsunami signals recorded by the DART network guaranteed high-quality input to the forecast system. During the event, the data assimilation and inversion provided a DART-constrained tsunami source within 2 hours of tsunami generation and a refined tsunami source within 4.5 hours, based on longer DART time series. The initial and refined results produced by the forecast system at 2 hours 9 minutes and 4 hours 45 minutes, respectively, after the earthquake provided guidance for warning and mitigation in the Pacific, especially along the U.S. coastline. The forecast indicated that tsunami flooding would not occur in any of the 14 U.S. coastal communities. Comparison of modeling results with the observations at deep-ocean buoys and coastal tide gages showed excellent agreement for up to 24 hours after tsunami generation in both wave height and period. Comparison of the maximum wave heights presents less than a 5% error when the background noise of observations is small.
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 7215 Earthquake source observations (1240)
DE: 7220 Oceanic crust
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting