HR: 1340h
AN: S53A-1045    [Abstracts]
TI: Mortality distributions in time and space during tsunamis: implications for the performance of tsunami warning systems and the importance of Education for Self Warning and Voluntary Evacuation (ESWAVE)
AU: Ranger, R
EM: rachelranger@yahoo.co.uk
AF: University College London, Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
AU: * Day, S J
EM: simonday_ucl@yahoo.co.uk
AF: University College London, Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
AB: Tsunami warning systems take advantage of the time windows of opportunity between occurrence of the source event and the impact of the tsunami on vulnerable coastlines. These time windows are taken up by instrumental detection of the event or the tsunami, distribution of warning messages, and the time needed for effective mitigation by evacuation of the expected inundation zone. Time distributions of mortality during a variety of well documented historical tsunamis show that with one exception (the 1946 Aleutians tsunami) at least 80 percent of tsunami mortality occurs within the first hour after the source event, even in the case of transoceanic tsunamis. This usually leaves less than 30 minutes for the warning systems to function if they are to prevent these 80 percent of deaths in tsunamis. However, in most cases the 80 percent of deaths also occur within zones of strong felt seismic shaking from tsunamigenic earthquakes, or within zones where other warning signs are evident to the vulnerable populations. Even outside these zones premonitory signs of tsunamis like leading negative or small positive waves commonly provide sufficient warning, in daylight at least, for effective evacuations by aware or educated populations. Instrument – based tsunami warning systems need to be significantly more rapid than at present to be as effective as Education for Self – Warning and Voluntary Evacuation (ESWAVE), and both need to be coupled with coastal land use planning to prevent mass mortalities in sites where evacuation is impossible within the tsunami propagation time.
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting