HR: 0800h
AN: SH41A-0302    [Abstracts]
TI: Long-Term Test Results and Implementation of Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP's Relativistic Electrons
AU: * Posner, A
EM: aposner@swri.org
AF: Southwest Research Institute, Space Science and Engineering Division 6220 Culebra Rd, San Antonio, TX 78238, United States
AU: Heber, B
EM: heber@physik.uni-kiel.de
AF: University of Kiel, IEAP Leibnizstr. 11, Kiel, 24118, Germany
AU: Mueller-Mellin, R
EM: mueller-mellin@physik.uni-kiel.de
AF: University of Kiel, IEAP Leibnizstr. 11, Kiel, 24118, Germany
AU: Rother, O
EM: rother@physik.uni-kiel.de
AF: University of Kiel, IEAP Leibnizstr. 11, Kiel, 24118, Germany
AB: A method of forecasting the intensity of prompt solar energetic protons of hazardous energies (~40 MeV) with relativistic electrons has been developed but, initially, tested only for 2003. It has been shown that forecasting of sudden intensity increases of such protons from solar energetic particle events is relevant for radiation protection of humans and technology in space. The method utilizes the speed advantage of electrons over 30-50 MeV protons and newly discovered correlations of inverse rise time and intensity between the two particle species. Its main advantage over other forecasting attempts is that electrons act as test particles by probing the ever- changing heliospheric transport conditions that act on the slower moving protons. The purpose of this presentation is to inform of forecasting attempts in the period from 2004-2007 under near solar minimum conditions with its unusually high occurrence frequency of major radiation storms, and to give an update on the implementation of the method with the SOHO/COSTEP team and the SOHO project.
DE: 2194 Instruments and techniques
DE: 7514 Energetic particles (2114)
DE: 7900 SPACE WEATHER
DE: 7924 Forecasting (2722)
DE: 7984 Space radiation environment
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting