HR: 11:50h
AN: SM32A-07    [Abstracts]
TI: How Good Are They? Comparing Commonly Used External Magnetic Field Models
AU: * McCollough, J P
EM: mccollou@colorado.edu
AF: University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814, United States
AU: Gannon, J L
AF: NOAA Space Environment Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, United States
AU: Baker, D N
AF: University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814, United States
AU: Gehmeyr, M
AF: University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814, United States
AU: Gehmeyr, M
AF: NOAA Space Environment Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, United States
AB: Accurate geomagnetic field models are crucial to the study of radiation belt phenomena. We quantitatively examine the prediction capability of many external models widely in use. We study two years characterized by very different space weather conditions: 1995 and 2003. The year 1995 exhibited many high-speed streams and co- rotating interaction regions (CIRs), while 2003 included the "Hallowe"en storm," one of the most intense geomagnetic storms recently on record, caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME). The performance of each model, as measured by prediction efficiency and skill score, is evaluated as a function of magnetospheric conditions (reflected by Kp and Dst) and local time. We look in detail at when the models fail and discuss the possible reasons. Not surprisingly, the newer models tend to perform better, and interesting comparisons arise between the performances of the models during CIR- and CME-driven geomagnetic events.
DE: 2101 Coronal mass ejections (7513)
DE: 2102 Corotating streams
DE: 2740 Magnetospheric configuration and dynamics
DE: 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions
DE: 2788 Magnetic storms and substorms (7954)
SC: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting