HR: 1340h
AN: U43A-0848    [Abstracts]
TI: Expert Judgments About Transient Climate Response and Climate Sensitivity
AU: * Zickfeld, K
EM: zickfeld@ocean.seos.uvic.ca
AF: University of Victoria, PO Box 3055 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W3P6, Canada
AU: Morgan, G
EM: granger.morgan@andrew.cmu.edu
AF: Carnegie Mellon Univbersity, Baker Hall 129, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States
AB: We present results from detailed interviews with 14 leading climate scientists about transient climate response and "classic" climate sensitivity (the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of pre- industrial CO2). The interviews sought to explore the range of opinions within the climate research community about the physical processes that most contribute to the uncertainty in transient and equilibrium global mean surface air temperature response. We also elicited quantitative, probabilistic judgments about the temperature response to specified radiative forcing trajectories and about equilibrium climate sensitivity. A variety of questions were posed about the potential for uncertainty reduction given different levels of achievements in the climate sciences. The results reveal a rich diversity of expert opinion and a greater degree of disagreement than is often conveyed in scientific consensus documents.
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting