HR: 1340h
AN: U43A-0851    [Abstracts]
TI: Maximum Likelihood Approach to the Estimate of Climate Sensitivity From the Climate Records Over the Past Century and Over the Past Millennium
AU: * Yamazaki, Y H
EM: hiro.yamazaki@physics.ox.ac.uk
AF: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
AU: Huntingford, C
EM: chg@ceh.ac.uk
AF: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
AU: Frame, D J
EM: dframe@ouce.ox.ac.uk
AF: Environmental Change Institute, OUCE, South Parks Road, Oxford, QX1 3QY, United Kingdom
AU: Allen, M R
EM: m.allen1@physics.ox.ac.uk
AF: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
AB: To refine the estimate of the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system, a large ensemble of simple energy balance models are driven with estimated changes in radiative forcing over the past century and over the past millennium. The model outputs are evaluated against instrumental and proxy-based temperature data using a maximum likelihood profiling method. We demonstrate that, unlike similar analyses in the past, our method is not sensitive to the sampling strategy of the modeling parameters as long as the size of the ensemble is sufficiently large.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3344 Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900)
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting